How can New Zealand achieve its ‘double exports’ target?

This article is the second in a three-part series exploring the key international trade challenges, opportunities, and policies for New Zealand.

Upon coming into government, the National-led coalition set an ambitious goal of doubling exports by 2034. This goal is not a strict target, but a signal of the importance of trade in supporting the economic performance of New Zealand. Striving for this goal requires us to think carefully about what we export, who exports, and how New Zealand firms engage with global markets. For exporters and policymakers alike, the challenge is not about ambition but execution.

In practice, the answer lies in improving export value, rather than export volume, through diversification, stronger firm capability, and moving up the value chain.

In the first part of this series, we noted that the “makeup of our exports is equally as, if not more, important than how much we produce”. 

New Zealand’s export profile remains heavily concentrated in a small set of primary industries that are exposed to global commodity price cycles. While these industries are internationally competitive, relying on volume growth alone is unlikely to deliver sustained increases in export value. Structural constraints, such as land availability, workforce shortages, and environmental pressures, mean that we cannot simply scale up production. Real progress will come from lifting productivity and value added within existing strengths, not from just producing more of the same products. 

Improvements in technology adoption, innovation, branding, and better integration across supply chains all help increase the value of what New Zealand exports. Over time, this can shift export growth away from volume and towards higher value returns. Doing more of the same will not deliver the step‑change that the target implies.

Policy direction in this space is already emerging. In 2025, the Ministry for Primary Industries released an eight-point plan focused on doubling the value of primary sector exports. The emphasis on innovation, sustainability, and value growth, rather than scale alone, is equally relevant beyond the primary sector.

Services exports (the weightless economy) clearly offer a major opportunity for a small, distant economy like New Zealand. Digital delivery allows firms to overcome geography barriers, reach scale faster, and participate in global markets with fewer physical constraints. Expanding high-value services, e.g., professional and technical services, and digital, creative, and knowledge-intensive industries, will be critical to lifting overall export value.

Part of New Zealand’s ability to lift export value is influenced by whether firms are able to operate confidently and competitively in international markets and at the global frontier. Exports are ultimately delivered by firms. Therefore, lifting export value requires supporting more firms to reach this frontier, and also the firms that are already there, to move further up the value chain.

At present, only a relatively small share of New Zealand firms export, and even fewer are deeply embedded in global markets or global value chains. The priority, therefore, is not simply to increase the number of exporting firms, but to create the conditions in which internationally oriented firms can specialise, innovate, and compete on value.

Much of New Zealand’s export performance is influenced by global commodity prices that remain outside our control. But domestic settings strongly influence how firms respond to these cycles. Good policy enables firms to capitalise on favourable global conditions, while also providing resilience when markets are volatile or demand softens.

Investment in skills, internationally aligned regulation, high-quality infrastructure (both physical and digital), and research and development supports firms to deepen their international engagement and move into higher-value activities. Over time, this expands the pool of frontier firms and shifts New Zealand’s export base toward activities that generate greater productivity and more durable export value. 

Doubling exports is not about just doing more of the same. Trade agreements that expand market access, such as efforts to deepen engagement across Asia or pursue new partners, e.g., the New Zealand-India free trade agreement, remain valuable. But improving market access alone will not guarantee higher export value and, therefore, the achievement of the doubling exports goal. We must build export resilience through diversification (in products and markets), support firms to move into higher-value activities, and ensure trade policy complements domestic capability. 

However, we cannot ignore the changing global environment. Global trade is becoming more fragmented, geopolitical tensions are rising, and supply chains are less predictable than during the ‘golden weather’ of globalisation. New Zealand’s long-standing liberal trade strategy is being tested.

In this context, the challenge is to complement openness with strategy. Trade policy, domestic settings, and firm-level support must work together to build export resilience, enable firms to move into higher-value activities, and ensure that New Zealand’s trade strategy remains effective in a more complex and uncertain world.

The final article in this three-part series will explore how New Zealand should position itself in a more complex, fragile, and rapidly evolving global trade environment, and what that means for future trade policy priorities.