Future-proofing New Zealand

The concept of megatrends refers to large-scale, transformative forces that shape the path of our communities, economies, and environments across the globe. Coined by John Naisbitt in 1982, megatrends differ from short-term shocks such as economic crises or pandemics like COVID-19; they are permanent shifts with broad scope and dramatic impact.

One of the most profound megatrends shaping our future is the rapid growth of the global population. In November 2022, humanity reached a staggering 8 billion people, a milestone that highlights the exponential pace of demographic growth. Until the 1800s, life was precarious, and surviving past the age of 30 was considered fortunate. It was not until 1804 that the global population hit 1 billion, and it took another 123 years to reach 2 billion in 1927. Remarkably, in the less than 100 years that followed, we added an astonishing 6 billion more people.

This surge in population has been accompanied by dramatic improvements in life expectancy, which now averages 73 years globally, more than double what it was before the 19th century. However, the demographic landscape is again undergoing a significant transformation. By 2050, Africa is projected to be home to 25 percent of the world’s population, and by 2070, it will become the most populous region on earth. In contrast, many other parts of the world, including New Zealand, are and will experience unprecedented ageing. This shift presents serious challenges for healthcare systems, pension schemes, and urban infrastructure, as societies must adapt to support increasingly older populations while maintaining economic resilience and social cohesion.

Urban areas, which cover just 2 percent of the earth’s surface, consume 75 percent of its resources. It is projected that by 2050, over two-thirds of humanity will live in cities, with most urban growth occurring in developing nations. We also know that the majority of new megacities (10 million or more people) will be in Africa; it is projected that Lagos in Nigeria will be home to 88 million by 2050. New Zealand is no different; in 2024, 86 percent of New Zealanders lived in urban areas, and Auckland is expected to house 2.5 million people, or 40 percent of New Zealand’s population, by 2050. Imagine the traffic!

In 2000, only 3 percent of the global population was online; by 2024, two-thirds are connected. The United Nations aims for universal internet access by 2030, reflecting the pace of digital integration. To put this into perspective, it took 75 years for the telephone to reach 100 million users; Instagram achieved the same in just two years, and newer platforms have done so in mere months. We also know that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape the nature of work, with the IMF estimating that 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI. The dominance of technology companies in the global economy, such as Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon, reflects this shift. These firms are not only economic powerhouses but also cultural and technological influencers.

This trend is driven by factors like rapid economic growth in emerging markets, shifting demographics, and technological advancements. The shift is reshaping global trade, investment patterns, and the balance of power in the world. The traditional dominance of the G7 nations (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Canada) is being challenged by the E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey). In 2009, the G7 had a combined GDP of US$29 trillion, compared to US$21 trillion for the E7. By 2050, the E7 is projected to reach US$138 trillion, nearly double the G7’s US$69 trillion. A major shift in global economic power could significantly impact New Zealand, particularly in trade, geopolitics, and the need for adaptation to technological advancements. Shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions will likely lead to increased uncertainty in global markets, affecting New Zealand's export-dependent economy. 

New Zealand does have the fourth largest Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the world. Our EEZ is approximately 4.2 million square kilometres, which is about 15 times the size of our country's landmass. We need to look after our ocean, but the alarming rise in plastic pollution, with 14 million tonnes entering the ocean annually, does not bode well for us. By 2050, plastic may outweigh fish in the sea. We are also a nation that creates a significant proportion of economic activity from animal protein. We also know that the environmental cost of animal protein is significant, with greenhouse gas emissions much higher for animal than plant-based protein sources. In 2024, the world slaughtered 83.3 billion animals, ten per person, compared to 8.68 billion animals, three per person, in 1962. New Zealand needs to proactively engage with these global shifts, including resource security, to ensure long-term prosperity.

Megatrends are reshaping our world in profound ways. From demographic shifts and urbanisation to technological disruption and climate challenges, these forces demand strategic foresight and adaptive governance. We as a nation need a long-term future strategy, a plan for what our country should look like in 50 to 100 years and how we will get there. For New Zealand, understanding and responding to these trends is essential to ensure resilience, equity, and sustainability in the decades ahead.