Has migration reached its peak?

Tuesday July 28, 2015 Hugh Dixon

migration 28 7 15 1On 21st July 2015, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) released data on the international migration for the year to June 2015.  New Zealand net migration reached a new peak of 58,259 for the year to June 2015.  Although, this new peak is just 437 people higher (or an increase of 0.8 percent) than the previous peak of 57,822, reached in the year to May 2015.


Since January 2013, when New Zealand went from a net loss of people to a net gain, New Zealand has seen a very rapid increase in our net migration.  This has been due to  an increase in arrivals, which increased from around 86,000 for the year to January 2014 to 115,600 seen in the June 2015 year, and a decrease in departures, which fell from around 86,000 to 57,400 over the same period.


migration 28 7 15 2Since the start of 2015, when net migration had peaked at 53,800 for the year to January 2015, the increase in each new month’s peak migration has been slightly less.  This indicates that New Zealand annual net migration since the start of the year has been slowing and that we are at, or are nearly at, the peak of net migration.


The growth in the record number of migrants over the last few months has come solely from increases in arrivals, as the number of departures from New Zealand has been relatively flat for the last 12 months.  Looking at Statistics New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted monthly arrival numbers it shows that arrivals number for the month of June 2015 are down from May 2015.