In fact the HLFS (Household Labour Force Survey) employment numbers are not erratic at all. The annual increase in the volume of work in the economy each quarter has been tracking down since June quarter 2011, and the September quarter figures continued that trend.
In the latest quarter it has crossed the line and is a decrease on year-earlier figures. It is this employment loss which is driving the increase in unemployment. The unemployment increase is the level we have forecast, and the trend in future doesn’t look good either.
Even with a reasonably positive view of the future, the unemployed by March 2013 are expected to be about 190,000 or nearly 8 percent of the labour force.