The scale of our migrant flows for the last three years are quite out of the ordinary.

At about this stage in the electoral cycle attention tends to focus on how well or badly the incumbent government has performed in terms of employment and unemployment.

berl graph

Net migration for New Zealand reached 70,600 in the year to December 2016. The net inward migration seen in 2016 comes from 127,300 arrivals, and 56,700 departures.  As shown in the figure to the right, the last time New Zealand had annual outward migration was in the year to December 2012 when 1,200 more people left than arrived.

In the year to December 2016, Auckland was the top spot for net migration in New Zealand. Auckland had 33,900 net permanent migrants, with 55,300 permanent arrivals and 21,400 permanent departures.

According to Statistics New Zealand’s Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), the number of people in New Zealand who are employed has increased by 278,000 during the past five years (December 2011 to December 2016).  But, curiously, during the same period, the number of people who are unemployed has decreased by only 5,000.  This article briefly examines why such a large increase in the former has been matched by such a small decrease in the latter.

On an annual basis, rises in arrivals of migrants with Resident visas and falls in arrivals of migrants with Student visas are driving the increase in annual net migration.

Net migration swelled New Zealand’s population by a record 67,619 in the 2016 March year. Quite a change from the 2012 March year, which recorded an annual net migration loss of 3,383. What happened?

Mr Cox a senior economist at Business and Economic Research Ltd (Berl) thinks some things need to change, but that the labour market will find its own way forward and people would reject Mr Bregman's vision as a bridge too far.

Compared to the same quarter a year earlier, total employment in New Zealand in the March 2016 quarter was 48,100, or 2.0% higher. However, the pattern of change, according to industry and occupation, was very mixed1.

Compared to the same quarter a year earlier, total employment in New Zealand in the March 2016 quarter was 48,100, or 2.0% higher. However, the pattern of change, according to industry and occupation, was very mixed1.

How will the New Zealand economy fare during 2016 and beyond? As always, opinions vary, but the Treasury, for one, foresees a slowing of growth during the early part of the year, followed by a period of acceleration lasting until early in 2018.

Employment annual growth has fallen from the dizzy heights of 60,000 to 80,000 per annum we had in 2013 and 2014. The last two quarters’ data sees employment growth flattening at about 33,000 per year.

Job growth slowed considerably during the September quarter, with latest figures showing 33,000 positions added nationally over the year to September.

On 21st July 2015, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) released data on the international migration for the year to June 2015. New Zealand net migration reached a new peak of 58,259 for the year to June 2015. Although, this new peak is just 437 people higher (or an increase of 0.8 percent) than the previous peak of 57,822, reached in the year to May 2015.

In November 2014, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) has released data on the international migration for the year to October 2014.

In November 2014, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) has released data on the international migration for the year to October 2014, and for the first time ever net migration to New Zealand has reached 47,684 for the year to October 2014.

The overall picture of net permanent and long-term migration is playing out very much as we have commented for some time. The main driver of the wide cyclical fluctuations in the past has been changes in the numbers of New Zealand residents leaving, particularly for Australia. Two years ago the outflow to Australia was 56,000. This outflow has dropped and is quite flat at about 30,000 a year.

In July 2014, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) has released data on the international migration for the year to June 2014.

Between the start of this century and the end of 2008, employment in New Zealand, as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), was trending upwards more-or-less steadily.

We started the second half of 2013 with the economy appearing to have some momentum behind it. Since then however, consumer and business confidence has dipped a little. Nevertheless, overall conditions remain positive. Despite these positive noises, the labour market conditions remain somewhat erratic and September quarter labour market results, released on 6 November, are unlikely to be as positive as many are hoping.

Are the days of hordes of young people enrolling in qualifications that employers don’t want and ending up unemployed numbered? Government agencies and tertiary education organisations are being pushed to provide employment and income information for graduates of tertiary education. This information was previously unreported or confined to technical research papers and the push for it to be made available to the public is laudable for a variety of reasons.

15,790 more people arrived in New Zealand than left, for the year ending September 2013. According to Statistics New Zealand’s September 2013 international travel and migration data, New Zealand is seeing continued gains in net permanent migration, after recovering from negative net migration in 2011 and 2012.

Kiwis migrating to Australia have doubled in the last 10 years from 25,000 in 2003, to over 51,000 in the year to March 2013. The love affair with Australia is fickle, and the slightest cloud on the Australian economic horizon causes the number trekking over to thin out.

New Zealand registered a small, yet positive, net migration inflow for the year to January 2013. New Zealand attracted 85,659 people for permanent and long -term migration. This compared with 85,647 departures for the year, which are 1,077 people less than a year earlier.

The unemployment in December quarter was 160,000, which is 10,000 less than it was in September quarter. The reason it dropped is because the number who gave up looking for a job increased by 21,000 people.

BERL’s preliminary assessment of the impact of Aoraki Polytechnic on South Canterbury has just been released.

In fact the HLFS (Household Labour Force Survey) employment numbers are not erratic at all. The annual increase in the volume of work in the economy each quarter has been tracking down since June quarter 2011, and the September quarter figures continued that trend.

The simple answer is that in September quarter there was an increase in the unemployed on the number in June quarter 2012 because the economy created too few jobs.

Despite our forecast being almost spot on, it gives us not pleasure whatsoever to see the official unemployment rate rise to 7.3%. Actual official unemployment totalled 170,000 in September, up from 151,200 this time last year.

Employment growth continues to fall. It dropped from 43,000 a year ago to just 12,000 in the 12 months to June 2012. That 12,000 increase is nowhere near enough to employ the increase in the number of people who want to work. Even this meagre employment increase could well become negative in the next six months if the trend over the last year continues.

Is cutting technology teachers really beneficial for our kids?

New Zealanders permanently migrating to Australia have hit another new record high, according to the April release of international travel and migration data from Statistics New Zealand.

New Zealanders permanently migrating to Australia has hit a new record high according to the March release of international travel and migration data from Statistics New Zealand.

On 5 March 2012, Statistics New Zealand released their international migration data for January 2012.

Media Release: EMBARGO 10.30am Wednesday 14 December 2011