To those inflation hawks that believe inflation continues to lurk in the dark shadows, please peruse the following charts noting in particular …
- NZ CPI inflation has been below 2% per annum for 4 years, and below 1% per annum for 9 of the last 17 quarters.
- Core retail (i.e. excl. vehicles and fuel) price inflation has been negative for 10 of the last 17 quarters.
- Producer price inflation has been negative for the last 6 consecutive quarters.
- Global inflation pressures remain distinctly absent, with headline CPI in
- United States
- United Kingdom
all under 2% per annum.
- Even headline average global CPI, as measured by IFS, is now below the 3% per annum mark.
- Exceptions are present, but even India, South Africa and Indonesia appear to be now in the regular single-digit annual inflation world. Russia and Brazil are concerning outliers.
- Global commodity, food, and oil prices have all slumped over the past couple of years.
- Deflation denial may be of more concern than inflation … and may harbour unwelcome consequences.
Selected NZ inflation indicators
Selected CPI inflation indicators around the globe
Selected world price indicators