The ‘Belt and Road’ initiative was launched in 2013 by China, with the aim to establish two trade routes linking China to Europe, Central Asia and South Asia. These trade routes, the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road provide the name of the initiative.
10 years on - did it make a difference?
Yes, it's probably not core business and/or economic research. But following the true BERL ethos of Making Sense of the Numbers we comment as below.
So said Robert Burns, Scotland’s most famous literary figure, reflecting on seeing a louse on a lady’s bonnet during a church service. Roughly translated, Burns was saying how good it would be if we could view ourselves objectively.
The US Federal Reserve announced in late September 2017 that it will begin one of the largest mass sales in its history. The US Federal Reserve is seeking to reduce the US$4.5 trillion in American security assets it currently holds
It is with considerable disappointment that New Zealand and many New Zealanders – with political and economic commentators amongst the worst – continue to misunderstand debt and, in particular, New Zealand’s debt situation.
In the year to March 2017, the US economy grew by 1.9 percent. As shown in the figure below this is down slightly on the 2 percent growth seen in December 2016, and below the average growth across the last five years of 2.1 percent.
In its May Monetary Policy Statement, the RBNZ identified key downside risks to the outlook for economic growth as including:
The first article in this series briefly explored who trades, noting that it is individual people and firms who trade, not nations. This article continues my description of trade from a fundamental perspective by exploring why individual people and firms trade.
The United States has elected Trump, Britain has Brexited with talks of exiting from the Common Market, and an agreement between the EU and Canada looks shaky. Clouds gather on the world of free trade as people express concern over international trade and nationalist sentiment rises.
The immediate reaction of pundits in the financial world to the Brexit vote in the UK was one of shock, quickly followed by near-panic. Share prices had been buoyant just before the vote, in the belief that a Remain result was assured. But they fell sharply on the day the result was announced, and they fell further on the following trading day. The general view was that Brexit would lead to significant economic disruption and, in all probability, recession.
Based on 2015 visitor numbers, a Trans-Tasman Visa arrangement could potentially be worth $2.5 billion a year to New Zealand from the China market alone.
Dr Ganesh Nana, chief economist and executive director at Business and Economic Research Limited (BERL), says the gap between Auckland and New Zealand prices is unlikely to be closing anytime soon.
To those inflation hawks that believe inflation continues to lurk in the dark shadows, please peruse the follow charts noting in particular …
In the 1990s it was America spurring world economic growth, in the 21st Century it has been China fuelling the world’s economic growth. With China showing more and more signs of a faltering economy, will the US be able to pick up the mantle, will a new country or region pick up the pieces, or will the world’s economy simply limp along waiting for China to kick start its economy?
The Chinese government has over the last week gone all out in order to halt the falling prices in the Shanghai Composite Stock Exchange (SSE). On the 9th July 2015, prices on the SSE have finally stopped falling, after they had dropped by 30 percent (or NZ$4.8 trillion) since June 12th 2015, for comparison Greece currently owes NZ$524 billion, while its GDP is NZ$351 billion.
On Sunday (05/07/2015) the people of Greece voted ‘No’ to a referendum seeking their support for a debt agreement proposed by their ‘troika’ of creditors that includes the European Union’s (EU’s) executive arm (the European Commission), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Australian Government presented their 2015 Budget on the 12th May 2015. The budget covered the Australian Government funding for the 2015/16 financial year. The Australian Government is forecast to collect a total of A$405.4 billion in revenue in the upcoming financial year, while paying A$434.5 billion in expenditure, leaving an forecast deficit of A$29.1 billion. The Australian Government has been running budget deficits since the 2008/09 financial year.
Since the start of 2014, the US economy has been growing at what can only be called a good pace. Real GDP grew by 2.4 percent, while 3.1 million people were added to the job market and unemployment fell to 5.6 percent.
On the 17th October 2013 the United States of America Treasury estimates that it will no longer be able to sell bonds to raise money to pay for Federal Government expenses.
In the first three months of 2014, China’s factories have experienced a decrease in their output, with manufacturing activity across China dropping to its lowest level in the past eight months.
In February 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released data on the Australian employment and unemployment for the January 2014 month.
The third quarter has seen a 7.8% growth in China, which has helped the Chinese economy to remain in a stable position, compared to the year before.
On the 17th October 2013 the United States of America Treasury estimates that it will no longer be able to sell bonds to raise money to pay for Federal Government expenses.
The release of three major US economic indicators over the last two weeks, are all pointing to the fact the US economy has been picking up steam since March 2013. If the US economy can sustain this stronger growth over the coming year than the US economy will be in good shape to sustain strong growth over the coming years. A strong growing US economy will go a long way in helping the global economy; including New Zealand’s economy to grow at a higher level.
In July 2013, the United States of America’s (US) Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) has released data on the US’s employment and unemployment for the June 2013 month. In the month of June 2013, America’s non-farm employment increased by 195,000 to 144 million, after a 195,000 increase in the May 2013 month.
As widely publicised, the first quarter of 2013 saw China replace Australia as the main destination for New Zealand’s exports. What is also worth noting is the speed of change that has occurred in getting to this position.This is notable as it indicates a momentum, and potential, for the future.
Julia Gillard’s Australian Federal Government released their budget for the 2013-14 year on Tuesday 14 May 2013. The Australian government’s budget like so many around the world, including New Zealand, is aimed at returning the Australian Government’s books to a surplus.
While employment rose in March 2013, it was the smallest increase in monthly employment since June 2012, according to the released data on the US’s employment and unemployment for the March 2013 month by the United States of America’s (US) Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) The average monthly increase over the year to March 2013 was 159,000.
On Monday 25th March (NZ time), the Cypriot Government along with the heads of the European Union (EU), the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, came to an agreement about how Cyprus would raise the €5.8 billion from its banking sector.
The Australian GDP grew by 0.6 percent for the December quarter of 2012. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on the 6th March 2013 released their data on the real Australian GDP growth.
China is looking to enforce paid annual leave more rigorously to ensure that most workers can enjoy better holidays by 2020. Currently, the length of paid annual leave varies, but largely depends on how long one has served in his or her current workplace.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 dropped by 0.1 percent according to the data release on 30th January 2013 by the United States of America’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
On 12th December 2012 the US Federal Reserve announced, for the first time, its explicit stimulus thresholds. The Federal Reserve announced that it will hold official rates at 0.25 percent for as long as the US unemployment rate was above 6.5 percent, and that inflation two years out is no more than 0.5 percent above the Federal Reserve 2 percent long-run goal.
The United States of America’s (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis has released data on the US GDP for the September 2012 quarter.
Australian GDP and unemployment data for the June 2012 quarter reveals that, overall, the Australian economy continues to grow strongly. But, the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia has been lowering the Official Cash Rate throughout 2012 is an indicator that the RBA is worried that this growth will not continue without some help.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released data on the Australian GDP for the March 2012 quarter.
