Hillmare Schulze
*Deputy Chief Economist*
Real Estate: Bad. But it could be alot worse!
So far, the housing market has remained remarkably resilient, at least in price, if not in sales. Not very long ago, many commentators were suggesting falls of 20, 30 or even 40% in house prices from their peak late last year. Recent figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) show that in fact, October 2008 values were down just 4.3% on those of a year ago. Quotable Value (QV), which calculates its figures on a quarter-over-quarter-a-year-ago basis, has calculated a 6.8% decline in prices, a broadly similar result.
Economic Impact of the Oil and Gas Sector on the Taranaki Region and New Zealand
Economic impact analysis
Government revenue down, but deficit not as bad
Treasury has released the final set of fiscal accounts before the release of the Budget in about a fortnight. The media release, however, is slightly misleading, as it does not always clearly distinguish when it is referring to Core Crown versus Total Crown figures. So while the government deficit is still bad, the actual figures are perhaps not as bad as one might interpret from a scan of Treasury’s media release.
Revenue up, expenses down, but the government's books are still in the red
The latest fiscal accounts (for the 11 months to May 2012) have some positives in them, and continue a recent trend of applying discipline (but not austerity) to the government accounts. The following table and figures summarise the actual and forecast Core Crown accounts.
The Economic Benifits of Early UFB Roll-out in Wellington
There is an important role for local Govenment to play in intervening in the Broadband market and supporting the government's Ultra Fast Broadband Initiative (UFBI). BERL has been commissioned to provide an economic case that supports the Wellington Urban Area's bid to be included in the first stage roll-out of UFB by providing an economic case for the Wellington Urban Area.
Official Cash Rate stays at 2.5 percent
Alan Bollard believes it is prudent to hold the OCR at 2.5 percent, where it has remained since March 2011.
The case for asset sales
Bleak jobless numbers call for change of course
Despite our forecast being almost spot on, it gives us no pleasure whatsoever to see the official unemployment rate rise to 7.3%. Actual official unemployment totalled 170,000 in September, up from 151,200 this time last year.